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Why are these models performing so poorly The answer is that we have not applied misclassi cation costs To develop candidate models that we will evaluate using a strictly de ned cost bene t matrix, we should seek to embed these costs within the models themselves In Clementine 85, two classi cation algorithms are equipped with explicit mechanisms for de ning asymmetric misclassi cation costs: C50 and CART Therefore, our next step is to develop decision tree models using misclassi cation costs in C50 and CART We proceed to de ne the cost of making a false negative decision to be 284 and the cost of making a false positive decision to be 20; there is no mechanism for de ning the bene t of a true positive to be 264, so it is left as 10.

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It should be noted that using these values to de ne the misclassi cation costs is equivalent to setting the false negative cost to 142 and the false positive cost to 10 Unfortunately, the application of these costs resulted in both the CART model and the C50 model classifying all customers as responders (not shown) (ie, similar to the send to everyone model) Evidently, the combination of 50% balancing with these strong misclassi cation costs made it too expensive for either model to predict negatively Therefore, the misclassi cation costs were reduced from the 142 10 ratio down to a 100 10 ratio, with the false negative cost equal to 10 and the false positive cost equal to 1 Again, this is equivalent to a false negative cost of 20 and a false positive cost of 2.

, It is important for your own good to do this ), athletes feel as if they are in control and can make choices within reasonable limits (Deci, Schwartz, Sheinman, & Ryan, 1981) On the other hand, messages are controlling when they force or coerce athletes to behave in a certain way (eg, You must do this You have no choice ) Controlling statements typically undermine intrinsic motivation, whereas autonomy-supportive statements preserve it or even enhance it (see Mageau & Vallerand, 2003, for a review of such research) Choice Research in sport and exercise reveals that choice facilitates intrinsic motivation with respect to physical activity For example, Dwyer (1995) showed that having the opportunity to choose the songs they wanted to hear while exercising increases feelings of choice and intrinsic motivation relative to participants in a control condition, even though both groups heard the same songs.

The resulting performance measures are provided in Table 712 Suddenly, with the application of misclassi cation costs at the model-building stage, the overall pro t per customer has jumped by more than a dollar Both the CART model and the C50 model have now outperformed the baseline send to everyone model Let s take a closer look at these models Figure 729 shows the results from the C50 model in Table 712 Note the highlighted node For the 447 records in this node, only 208% of them are responders Yet, as indicated by the 1 to the right of the arrow, the model is predicting that the customers in this node are responders Why is this happening Because the high false negative misclassi cation cost makes the model very wary of making negative predictions This phenomenon helps to illustrate why the C5.

FIGURE 2-5: The contextual menu on the Dock lets you change some settings, including the Dock s location.

0 model with 142 1 misclassi cation costs returned not a single negative prediction Also note from Figure 729 the dominant role played by the rst principal component, purchasing habits (Table 76), denoted as $F-PCA-1 in the decision tree..

Similar findings have also been reported with respect to physical education classes (eg, Goudas, Biddle, Fox, & Underwood, 1995) Thus, it appears that choice represents an important factor to consider with respect to situational motivation Mediational Evidence Because individuals need to feel competent, autonomous, and connected to significant others in their interaction with their environment, activities that allow them to satisfy these needs will be engaged in by choice out of intrinsic motivation or identified regulation when they have the opportunity to do so Thus, need satisfaction is hypothesized to mediate the impact of social factors on motivation Research has found support for this hypothesis For instance, in a study.

Fig. 7.3 Sanderling do not defend feeding territories when prey densities are very low or very high. (From Myers, J.P., Connors, P.G. & Pitelka, F.A. (1979) Territory size in wintering sanderlings: the effects of prey abundance and intruder density. Auk, 96, 551 61.)

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